More than a dozen people, including three Iranian commanders, were killed in a deadly attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, the capital of Syria. Tehran immediately announced retaliation for the attack and called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
Hossein Amir-Abdullahian delivered his government's stern message to Washington on social media X (formerly Twitter). In that message, Tehran said, as a supporter of the "Zionist government", the United States must also take responsibility.
It is clear that Iran wants to retaliate. Iran's top religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said, "These scoundrels must be punished by our brave children." We will surely repent for this crime.
President Raisi has promised that this unjust crime will not go unanswered. And Interior Minister Ahmed Vahidi X said, "Let the Zionists wait to see what we will do."
Iran's political circles called for collective retaliation. Many of them demanded revenge attacks on Israeli embassies in other countries.
Indeed, Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus will mark the transition of the conflict between Iran and Israel to a new level. Step by step this conflict will reach far beyond the shadow war.
Israel has carried out a number of strikes in Syria since the start of the civil war and the presence of Iranian troops in the country.
But these attacks initially targeted facilities and vehicles that supply weapons to Iranian proxies, but have since gradually targeted senior military officials.
Aggression is increasing continuously
The latest attack on Damascus was clearly premeditated. This attack is intended to kill the top commanders of Iran. General Reza Zahedi was the highest ranking among those killed.
This senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards was the coordinator of Iran's military operations in Lebanon and Syria.
Since the October 7 attack on Gaza, Israel has increased attacks and killings of Iranian troops. At least 17 members of the Revolutionary Guards were killed in a suspected Israeli attack in Syria during this time. Iran blames Israel for killing five members of the Revolutionary Guards in January.
Among them was Sajed Omidzadeh, who worked as an intelligence officer for the Quds Force. A month earlier, General Seyed Razi Mousavi was killed in an airstrike outside Damascus. General Mousavi served as the coordinator of the military alliance between Syria and Iran.
Attacks on locations of interest by US and foreign forces are likely in the coming weeks and months. Earlier this year, several American soldiers were killed in an attack by Iran-backed proxy groups along the Jordan-Syria border. The attack on US troops is due to their support for Israel in the Gaza war.
But the attack on the Iranian consulate building will mark the final stage of the aggression. Iran cannot remain indifferent to this attack. Because their rhetoric of harsh revenge will damage their image. But there are still several things. Tehran must take those issues into account.
First, Iran does not want to engage in a full-scale war with Israel. It will create a risk of direct war with the United States. Second, such a conflict would throw the game into Israel's hands.
As Tel Aviv seeks to make the Gaza war global by clashing with Tehran. Israel wants to divert the world's attention from the genocide it has carried out in Gaza by conflict with Iran.
Third, Iran is in acute crisis. A strong economy is needed to wage war. But inflation in Iran is now 40 percent, their currency exchange rate is weak, and the budget deficit is huge.
It's easy to get caught up in a war. But getting out of war can take months to years. It puts huge economic pressure on the country and its citizens.
Finally, the people of Iran are not supporting the start of the war. In 2022, the Iranian government lost massive public support in the 'Women, Life, Liberation' movement. A lot has also had to fall into the crisis of legitimacy.
Wave of reaction
Rather than all-out war, Iran is expected to respond indirectly through proxy conflicts. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the international think tank Chatham House, believes that Tehran can retaliate with "a series of small attacks" instead of a major attack.
An emergency meeting of the UN Security Council condemned the attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus.
China and Russia say this is a violation of international law and the UN Charter. As Iran seeks to build international consensus on its possible course of action, the Arab world has condemned Israel for the attack on the consulate building.
Attacks on locations of interest by US and foreign forces are likely in the coming weeks and months. Earlier this year, several American soldiers were killed in an attack by Iran-backed proxy groups along the Jordan-Syria border.
The attack on US troops is due to their support for Israel in the Gaza war. In response, the United States launched several attacks. After that the situation calmed down again. Washington has said that the US has no involvement in the attack on the consulate in Damascus this time.
Iranian proxies across the Middle East may now step up attacks. For example, the Houthis may increase their attacks in the Red Sea. But proxy attacks will definitely be different now. Now they can attack more sensitive areas including the Israeli embassy.
- Mohammad Salami, Research Associate at the International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis
- Taken from Middle East Eye, translated from English by Manoj Dey
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